Mapping Morocco's macroeconomic vulnerabilities
Risk Indicator
Global risk level
ModerateExternal risk remains contained but calls for attentive monitoring of external financing needs and liquidity buffers. The fiscal deficit remains manageable but leaves a narrower safety margin than under a very favorable regime. Low inflation risk nevertheless plays a buffering role in the aggregate reading. The aggregate signal remains intermediate: vulnerabilities exist, but they do not yet form a systemic cluster. Overall, global risk stands at a moderate level.
Risk breakdown
Inflation Risk
cpi.yoy.m
Current value: 0.6%
- CPI inflation: -0.6%
- At -0.6%, the KPI stands below the 2% threshold.
External Risk
trade.deficit.m + reserves.months.m
- Trade deficit: 18,341 MAD M
- Reserves: 5.6 months of imports
- Reserves cover 5.6 months of imports and leave the risk signal unchanged.
Fiscal Risk
fiscal.deficit.gdp.a
Current value: 4.6%
- Fiscal deficit: 4.6% of GDP
- Classification is based on the absolute deficit magnitude.
Labour Market Risk
unemployment.national.q
Current value: 11.7%
- National unemployment: 11.7%
- The unemployment rate stands in the 9-12% band, at 11.7%.
Analytical commentary
Inflation RiskLow
Inflation risk remains low. At -0.6%, the KPI stands below the 2% threshold. This pillar remains in a low zone and is not a driver of deterioration in global risk.
- CPI inflation: -0.6%
- At -0.6%, the KPI stands below the 2% threshold.
External RiskModerate
External risk remains moderate. The trade deficit stands at 18,341 MAD M. Reserves cover 5.6 months of imports and leave the risk signal unchanged. This pillar remains in a moderate zone and mainly calls for regular monitoring.
- Trade deficit: 18,341 MAD M
- Reserves: 5.6 months of imports
- Reserves cover 5.6 months of imports and leave the risk signal unchanged.
Fiscal RiskModerate
Fiscal risk remains moderate. The deficit magnitude stands in the 3-5% of GDP band, at 4.6%. This pillar remains in a moderate zone and mainly calls for regular monitoring.
- Fiscal deficit: 4.6% of GDP
- Classification is based on the absolute deficit magnitude.
Labour Market RiskModerate
Labour market risk remains moderate. The unemployment rate stands in the 9-12% band, at 11.7%. This pillar remains in a moderate zone and mainly calls for regular monitoring.
- National unemployment: 11.7%
- The unemployment rate stands in the 9-12% band, at 11.7%.
Risk evolution
External risk - trade deficit and reserves
Summary heatmap
| Risk pillar | Level |
|---|---|
| Inflation Risk | Low |
| External Risk | Moderate |
| Fiscal Risk | Moderate |
| Labour Market Risk | Moderate |
Methodology
Pillars & sources
The Risk Indicator maps Morocco's macro vulnerabilities through four fixed pillars: inflation, external sector, public finances and labour market.
| Risk pillar | KPI | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Risk | cpi.yoy.m | HCP |
| External Risk | trade.deficit.m + reserves.months.m | Office des Changes |
| Fiscal Risk | fiscal.deficit.gdp.a | MEF / TGR |
| Labour Market Risk | unemployment.national.q | HCP |
Classification thresholds
Each pillar is classified through a fixed threshold grid. No statistical normalization, z-score or hidden weighting is used.
- Inflation Risk: below 2 = Low, 2-4 = Moderate, 4-7 = Elevated, above 7 = High.
- Fiscal Risk: the engine applies Math.abs() to the fiscal deficit magnitude; below 3 = Low, 3-5 = Moderate, 5-7 = Elevated, above 7 = High.
- Labour Market Risk: below 9 = Low, 9-12 = Moderate, 12-15 = Elevated, above 15 = High.
External logic
External risk follows a fixed two-step rule. First, the engine computes a base risk level from the absolute trade deficit magnitude.
Second, reserves adjust the base level: reserves at or above 6 months lower the level by one notch, reserves below 4 months raise it by one notch, and the result is clamped between Low and High.
The latest published observation is always used for both sub-indicators; no averaging is applied.
Global aggregation
Global risk follows a hybrid rule set, not a weighted average. Any High pillar prevents the global level from staying below Elevated, and two High pillars immediately escalate the aggregate to High.
Two Elevated pillars are enough to classify the aggregate as Elevated, while one isolated Elevated pillar maps to Moderate. Two or more Moderate pillars also yield a Moderate reading.
The Risk Indicator is conceptually independent from the MEIT Score: it does not expose a numeric score and is never computed as 100 minus MEIT Score.